ICES advice 2017

ICES advice on fishing opportunities

ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2018 should be no more than 115 335 tonnes.

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Stock development over time

The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has increased significantly since 2006 and is well above historical estimates. Fishing mortality (F) has decreased significantly after 2005, and has been below FMSY since 2012. The recruitment (R) estimate for 2016 is above average

Figure 1 . Summary of the stock assessment of hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.Recruitment, F, and SSB plots show 95% confidence intervals (shaded area). Assumed recruitment values are unshaded.

Summary of the assessment

Assessment summary for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Weights are in tonnes. Highs and lows are 95% confidence intervals
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Stock and explotation status

State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points

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Catch scenarios

Table 2 The basis for the catch scenarios of hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes.

Variable	Value	Source	Notes
F (2017)	0.26	ICES (2017a)	Mean F(2014–2016).
SSB (2018)	267673.00	ICES (2017a)
R (2017/2018)	335071.00	ICES (2017a)	GM (1978–2014); in thousands.
Total catch (2017)	105223.00	ICES (2017a)	Forecasted catch from the assessment model (based on F(2017) = Mean F(2014–2016) plus additional discards.
Wanted catch (2017)	93588.00	ICES (2017a)	Based on average discard rates observed during 2014–2016.
Unwanted catch (2017)	11635.00	ICES (2017a)	Based on average discard rates observed during 2014–2016.

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Table 3 Annual catch scenarios for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes.

Basis	F	Catch 2018	SSB2019
MSY approach: FMSY	0.280	115335	295193
F = 0	0.000	0	401929
Fpa	0.620	211827	206120
Flim	0.870	261716	160047
SSB (2019) = Blim	2.293	383469	44975
SSB (2019) = Bpa	2.731	395825	32001
SSB (2019) = MSY Btrigger	2.731	395825	32001
F = F2017	0.259	108119	301860
EU Recovery Plan^^	0.250	104736	304987

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Basis of the advice

Table 4 The basis of the advice for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

Advice basis	MSY approach.
Management plan	The current recovery plan (EU, 2004) is based on precautionary reference points that are no longer appropriate. ICES has not evaluated this plan.

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Quality of the assessment

The uncertainty in the assessment is relatively high, with large changes in biomass estimates in consecutive years. The model confidence intervals are an underestimate of uncertainty because they are narrower than interannual changes in estimates in consecutive years. There is a lack of tuning data for the earlier years of the assessment, for some areas outside of subareas 7 and 8, and for the larger individuals in the population. Given the expansion of the stock into northern areas (ICES, 2017b), there is a potential that not all catches are reported for this stock. Biological sampling from these areas is also limited. The data compilation of this stock is very complicated because it is exploited by several countries and the assessment model configuration is complex. In turn, the assessment model is very sensitive to the data and the settings used. Hence, it is extremely important for the quality of the assessment to have the complete data for all the countries on time and in the right format.

Figure 2 Historical assessment results for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

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Issues relevant for the advice

Discarding of juvenile hake can be substantial in some areas and fleets. Discarding of large individuals has increased in recent years because of quota restrictions in certain fleets.

Some fleets fishing this stock have been under the EU landing obligation since 2016.

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Reference Points

Table 5 Reference points, values, and their technical basis for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

Framework	Reference.point	Value	Technical.basis	Source
MSY approach	MSY Btrigger	45000	Bpa	ICES (2016a)
	FMSY	0.28	Stochastic simulations on a segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship.	ICES (2016a)
Precautionary approach	Blim	32000	A low biomass which was followed by a quick recovery.	ICES (2016b)
	Bpa	45000	1.4 × Blim	ICES (2016b)
	Flim	0.87	Fishing mortality resulting in a 5% probability of SSB falling below Blim.	ICES(2016b)
	Fpa	0.62	Flim/1.4	ICES(2016b)
Management plan	SSBMGT	No defined

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Basis of the assessment

Table 6 Basis of the assessment and advice for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

ICES stock data category	1 (ICES, 2016c).
Assessment type	Length-based model (SS3; ICES, 2017a) that uses landings and some discards in the model. Additional discards are then included to calculate a catch forecast.
Input data	Commercial landings; four survey indices (EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4, SpPGFS-WIBTS-Q3, IGFS-WIBTS-Q4, and RESSGASC); maturity data: constant maturity (Martin, 1991); natural mortality: constant value (0.4).
Discards and bycatch	Data series from most fleets are available; 75% of the observed discards are included in the assessment (ICES, 2017a). The discards not used in the assessment are used to top-up the catch advice.
Indicators	None.
Other information	Last benchmarked in 2014 WKSOUTH (ICES, 2014).
Working group	Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE)

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Information from stakeholders

There is no information available

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History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 7 ICES advice and catch of hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes

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Year	ICES advice	Pred. Catch	Pred. landings	TAC	ICES landings	Discards	ICES catch
1987	Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection			63500	63369		NA
1988	Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection		54000	66200	64823	**	NA
1989	Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection		54000	59700	66473	**	NA
1990	Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection		59000	65100	59954		NA
1991	Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection		59000	67000	58129		NA
1992	If required, precautionary TAC		61500	69000	56617		NA
1993	Enforce juvenile protection legislation			71500	52144		NA
1994	F significantly reduced			60000	51259	**	NA
1995	30% reduction in F		31000	55100	57621		NA
1996	30% reduction in F		39000	51100	47210		NA
1997	20% reduction in F		54000	60100	42465		NA
1998	20% reduction in F		45000	59100	35060		NA
1999	Reduce F below Fpa			55100	39814	**	NA
2000	50% reduction in F			42100	42026	**	NA
2001	Lowest possible catch, recovery plan			22600	36675		NA
2002	Lowest possible catch / recovery plan			27000	40105		NA
2003	Lowest possible catch / recovery plan			30000	43162	1393	44555
2004	70% reduction in F or recovery plan			39100	46416	2614	49029
2005	F = 0.19		33000	42600	46550	4583	51133
2006	F = 0.25		44000	43900	41469	1222	42691
2007	Recovery plan limits		50500	52700	45093	2165	47258
2008	Recovery plan limits		54000	54000	47822	3368	51190
2009	F = 0.25 = Fpa		51500	51500	58781	11033	69814
2010	F = 0.25 = Fpa		55200	55105	72760	12118	84878
2011	See scenarios		50600	55105	87540	13903	101443
2012	MSY transition		51900	55105	85677	14870	100547
2013	MSY transition		45400	69440	77708	15400	93108
2014	MSY approach		81846	81846	89928	9800	99728
2015	MSY approach		78457	90849	95023	10900	105923
2016	MSY approach	? 109592	? 96651	108764	107530	11114	118644
2017	MSY approach	? 123777		119765	NA		NA
2018	MSY approach	? 115335		NA	NA		NA

Sum of area TACs, corresponding to northern stock plus Division 2.a (EC zone only). ** Partial discard estimates are available and used in the assessment. For remaining years for which no values are presented, some estimates are available but not considered valid and thus not used in the assessment.

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Dynamic Stock Status Plots

Gapminder is a data visualization tool developed by Hans Rosling that allows one to view 5 dimensional data (see Rosling’s TED talk for details). It has proved to be an ideal tool for viewing the biological status of the resource, and we provide this tool for each region. (This description will improve)

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History of the catch and landings

Table 8 Catch distribution by fleet in 2016 as estimated by ICES for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

** Missing small table**

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Table 9 History of commercial catch and landings of hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Both the official and ICES estimated values are presented by area for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.

Missing big table

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Sources and references

• EU. 2004. COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No. 811/2004 of 21.4.2004 establishing measures for the recovery of the Northern hake stock. Official Journal of the European Union, L 150/1. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2004:150:0001:0011:EN:PDF.

• ICES. 2014. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Southern Megrim and Hake (WKSOUTH), 3–7 February 2014, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2014/ACOM:40. 236 pp.

• ICES. 2016a. EU request to ICES to provide FMSY ranges for selected stocks in ICES subareas 5 to 10. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 5, Section 5.4.1.

• ICES. 2016b. Report of the Workshop to consider FMSY ranges for stocks in ICES categories 1 and 2 in Western Waters (WKMSYREF4), 13–16 October 2015, Brest, France. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:58. 183 pp.

• ICES. 2016c. Advice basis. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section 1.2.

• ICES. 2017a. Report of the Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian waters Ecoregion (WGBIE), 4–9 May 2017, Cadiz, Spain. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:12. In preparation.

• ICES. 2017b. Report of the Working Group on Mixed-Fisheries Advice (WGMIXFISH-ADVICE), 22–26 May 2017, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark.ICES CM 2017/ACOM:18. In preparation.

• Martin, I. 1991. A preliminary analysis of some biological aspects of hake (Merluccius merluccius L. 1758) in the Bay of Biscay. ICES CM 1991/G:54. 31 pp.